Thursday, 19th July 2018

You might be surprised at what really drives interest rates

  • Jennifer M Schelbert
  • 8th September, 2017
You might be surprised at what really drives interest rates

Lenders are increasing interest rates irrespective of the RBA Board’s decisions on the cash rate. Many investors and mortgagees may not fully understand why this is happening and how it might affect the current low rates – and their loans - in the future. This article explains as simply as possible what drives interest rates and why they’re increasing.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the major trading banks may play the most visible role in setting interest rates, but in many cases they are being reactive rather than proactive.

A wide range of external factors feed into their decision-making process, including in no small part, our collective behaviour as investors and savers, borrowers and consumers. Then there’s the rate of inflation and wages growth, foreign currency exchange, the economic health of our trading partners, and the interest rates paid by local banks to borrow money from overseas.

Suddenly it’s not so easy to figure out where interest rates are headed, even in the short term.

A fine balance

To look at just one part of the puzzle: the RBA dropped the cash rate to 1.5% in August 2016 – the lowest rate on record. This makes it cheaper for businesses to borrow and invest in job-creating activities. However, mortgage rates also followed the cash rate down, allowing homebuyers and investors to borrow more which subsequently drove up house prices.

So how can the RBA keep a lid on housing costs without choking business activity and consumer spending?

One way is to get by with a little help from its friends, in this case the banking regulator, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA).

APRA has imposed a range of restrictions on the banks. These include capping new interest-only lending, and limiting the growth in lending to investors. Lenders are also ordered to keep a tight rein on ‘risky’ loans, for example, where loans exceed 80% of the value of the property.

While APRA’s main motive is to make the banks more resilient to any shocks such as another global financial crisis, a side effect is that the banks will have to reduce the amount they lend for housing. And according to the rule of supply and demand, if less money is available then the cost of that money – the interest rate – will go up.

We are now seeing this happen. Bank mortgage rates have risen, particularly for investors and interest-only loans, even though the RBA’s cash rate has remained unchanged.

Navigating uncertain waters

Appreciating the complexity of interest rates doesn’t always help in deciding how to respond to them. Even the experts often get it wrong when trying to predict where interest rates are going. This doesn’t help answer borrowers’ eternal question: “do I lock in a fixed rate, or opt for a variable rate?”

Locking in current rates provides protection against future mortgage rate rises. In the current low interest rate environment it’s very tempting to fix the rates on at least part of a mortgage, and for as long as possible (usually up to five years).

Of course, if rates fall further, fixed-rate borrowers miss out on a windfall. However, with rates already so low, any falls are likely to be small which can minimise the downside risk.

Still not sure what to do? If your mortgage is due for a review or you’re looking to invest or buy, talk to your licensed financial planner or mortgage broker to get a professional opinion.

About the Author

Mrs Mortgage is, in fact, a real, live person better known to her friends as Jennifer Schelbert.

Jennifer is a director of Mrs Mortgage and is also a licensee of Choice Aggregation Services - she is also a full member of the Mortgage and Finance Association of Australia (MFAA).

Jennifer Schelbert Credit Representative number 398747 of Mrs Mortgage Corporate Credit Representative number 396742 (ACN 063 827 216) of BLSSA Pty Ltd (Australian Credit License No. 391237)

Disclaimer: This document is for information purposes only, and must not be relied upon as a substitute for professional services or legal advice.


Privacy Policy

Blog Categories

Case Studies and Testimonials

Real people sharing their stories - good and bad - about their experience in the Australian mortgage market.


Legislation and Regulatory Updates

News and updates on changes to legislation and other regulatory updates


Mortgage News

All recent news and updates concerning Mortgages in Australia


Mortgage Opinions and Views

Opinions and views about mortgages and the state of the market in Australia


Other Articles

Miscellaneous and other articles


Recent Mortgage News



Or use your account on Blog

Error message here!

Hide Error message here!

Forgot your password?

Or register your new account on Blog

Error message here!

Error message here!

Hide Error message here!

Lost your password? Please enter your email address. You will receive a link to create a new password.

Error message here!

Back to log-in

Close